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Iran has declared that no US warships will be allowed in the Persian Gulf “under any circumstances,” and President Trump has threatened “another little Epic Fury.” Houthis attacked Saudi airports and oil facilities, while Brent crude hit $116.72 a barrel — a six-month high with consequences that reach Ukraine’s fuel prices and the West’s attention span.
Three years after the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023, the Middle East is locked in a multi-front war: Gaza, Hezbollah, and a direct US-Israel conflict with Iran that has killed Iran's Supreme Leader and hundreds of others. Israeli protesters still demand a state commission of inquiry — and Netanyahu's government still has not created one.
Saudi Arabia confirmed that its air defenses intercepted a Houthi ballistic missile heading toward Riyadh on September 19. The Houthis claimed attacks on “sensitive” targets in the capital and oil infrastructure in Yanbu, but the claimed scale of damage has not been independently confirmed. The conflict is also putting pressure on two key oil-export corridors: the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea route through Bab el-Mandeb.
Kpler recorded only three commercial vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz on September 16, down from 12 a day earlier and a roughly 17-vessel average over the previous ten days. At the same time, renewed fighting in Yemen is raising security risks around another vital maritime passage, Bab el-Mandeb. The two situations should not be conflated, however: Hormuz is showing a dramatic measured decline, while traffic through Bab el-Mandeb has so far fallen much less.
The United Nations says at least 125,000 people have been displaced in Yemen since the beginning of September, while thousands have crossed the sea to Djibouti. UNICEF reports more than 57,000 displaced children, disrupted health facilities and schools, and warns of the dangers of the maritime route.
