Only three ships cross Hormuz as Yemen fighting raises risk around Bab el-Mandeb

Hormuz traffic fell to three recorded transits

Preliminary ship-tracking data published by Reuters on September 17 showed a sharp fall in traffic through Hormuz. Kpler recorded three vessel transits on Wednesday, September 16, compared with 12 the previous day and an average of around 17 during the preceding ten days.

That figure does not prove that only three ships physically crossed the strait. Vessels travelling with their Automatic Identification System, or AIS, switched off may not appear in the count.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration says AIS information around Hormuz has become particularly unreliable since the end of February 2026. Its 2026 estimates are therefore revised frequently and supplemented with information about cargo origins, destinations and routes.

The disruption is much broader than one extraordinary day

A daily vessel count is not directly comparable with the volume of oil transported through the strait. Longer-term EIA data nevertheless show how sharply energy flows had already declined.

Estimated oil and petroleum-product flows through Hormuz averaged 21.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025. In the second quarter of 2026, the estimate was 4.9 million barrels per day. The EIA cautions that wartime tracking makes the 2026 figures unusually uncertain.

The three-vessel figure is therefore best understood as another measure of severe instability in the shipping corridor, rather than evidence that Hormuz is completely sealed.

Bab el-Mandeb faces rising risk, but not the same traffic collapse

The widening conflict is putting pressure on a second maritime chokepoint on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula.

Reuters reported 21 vessel crossings through Bab el-Mandeb on September 16, compared with 24 the previous day. That is a decline, but far smaller than the fall recorded at Hormuz.

In a September 15 Security Council briefing, UN Assistant Secretary-General Khaled Khiari said commercial shipping through the Red Sea still appeared broadly unaffected at that point. He nevertheless warned that the Houthi advance along Yemen's western coast toward Bab el-Mandeb was adding to concerns over the route.

The distinction matters: a sharp disruption is already visible in Hormuz data, while the immediate story at Bab el-Mandeb is the growing military threat to a route that is still functioning.

Yemen's humanitarian cost is already rising

The same escalation has displaced at least 125,000 people across Yemen since the start of September, according to the United Nations. By September 14, the UN Human Rights Office had verified eight civilian deaths and 32 injuries, while around 2,300 people had reached the Obock area of Djibouti after fleeing Yemen.

The Associated Press separately reported the UN displacement figure and said UNICEF estimated that more than 57,000 of those displaced were children.

Fewer ships do not automatically mean higher oil prices every day

The oil market offered an important counterpoint on September 17.

Despite the unusually low Hormuz traffic count, Brent crude was down about 1.4% at $104.33 a barrel at 1000 GMT. Reuters attributed part of the decline to additional Saudi crude shipments via Oman and expectations that the kingdom's East-West pipeline could return to service more quickly.

Two pumping stations on that pipeline had been damaged, however, and the repair timetable remained unclear. Saudi Arabia has also been offering additional cargoes to Asian refiners through ship-to-ship transfers off Sohar in Oman.

The next test is therefore not a single day's oil-price move. It is whether Hormuz traffic remains at extremely low levels while vessel movements through Bab el-Mandeb also begin to deteriorate materially. A simultaneous disruption would leave the energy market with fewer practical ways to reroute supply.