Ukraine Slashes Draft Exemption Quotas, Puts “Critical” Status Under Intelligence Control

The message from the government is clear: business is too important to be left to businesspeople. Draft exemptions — the mechanism that keeps key workers off the front lines — are being turned into yet another tool of administrative pressure. Never mind that without people, power plants, water utilities, and the IT sector that props up Ukraine’s foreign currency reserves would grind to a halt.

Here’s what the draft proposal looks like.

First, the quotas. For defense industry and energy companies: 85% instead of the previous 100%. For municipal utilities: 60% instead of 75%. The cuts seem modest — until you realize that in many critical industries, every second male employee is of conscription age. That means roughly one in seven will now face mobilization. Who will fix the grid when Russia targets infrastructure? The government’s answer appears to be: figure it out yourselves.

Second — and this is the real bombshell — the “critical” status of a company will be approved by a new Coordination Center under the Cabinet of Ministers. Its members include representatives of the SBU (state security), the HUR (military intelligence), the SZR (foreign intelligence), and the National Police. You read that right: to keep a welder or a programmer out of the army, a businessman will need a stamp from people whose job is surveillance, not economic calculation.

Picture the process. A company director submits documents. Some SBU major decides whether the enterprise is “critical” enough. Formally, it’s coordination. In practice, it’s a Soviet-style “special department” with a modern logo. And there are no public consultations — the draft was sent to ministries, which have until October 20 to “harmonize” their criteria. Business will learn the rules after they are set.

Speaking of deadlines: ministries must update their criteria by October 20. What criteria? Nobody knows. Business associations that usually take part in such discussions are silent this time. Either they weren’t invited, or they’ve given up expecting to be consulted.

Why is this being done? If the goal is a fair distribution of the mobilization burden, why not involve economists, industry experts, and the public? Why leave the decisions to people who have never drawn up a company budget or calculated how many workers are needed to keep the lights on?

The answer is simple: the government does not trust business. It assumes every director is trying to dodge the draft for their employees. So exemptions are becoming a loyalty filter. A “critical” enterprise is one that doesn’t raise suspicions among the security services.

The consequences are predictable. First, bureaucratic hell: approvals at the Coordination Center will drag on for months. Second, subjectivity: decisions will depend on the mood of a particular colonel. Third, corruption: wherever there’s an administrative barrier, a bribe market emerges. Some will pay to get “critical” status; others will pay to keep it.

All of this is happening during a war, when the economy needs stable rules, not another surprise from the Cabinet.

The bottom line: the government is preparing not a tool to protect the economy, but a tool to control it. Business is being turned into a hostage of the mobilization machine. And public consultation — well, that’s apparently a luxury Ukraine can’t afford.

We wait until October 20. And hope that some common sense slips through the intelligence sieve. But knowing this government, I wouldn’t hold my breath.