Trump’s Approval Rating Hits Record Low of 31% Two Weeks Before Midterms — Democrats Lead by 12 Points. What Does It Mean for Ukraine?

Donald Trump is losing Americans fast. The latest Reuters/Ipsos survey, conducted October 15–18 among 1,679 adults (margin of error ±2 points), puts his job approval at 31% — one point lower than two weeks ago and the worst figure of either of his terms.

On the generic congressional ballot — which asks voters which party they support in their local district — Democrats lead Republicans 47% to 35%. That’s the widest gap of the entire election cycle. Among women, the margin is even starker: 50% for Democrats vs 32% for Republicans.

Why Trump is sinking

Two interconnected reasons.

First, the economy. 68% of Americans disapprove of Trump’s economic policies. Tellingly, 37% of self-identified Republicans also say they’re unhappy. Second, the Iran war. On February 28, 2026, the U.S. and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran. Before that, gas cost $2.98 per gallon. Afterward, it surged above $4 — and stayed there.

Trump tried to blame Ukraine and Democrats for the price spike, claiming Kyiv’s strikes on Russian refineries were responsible. But the numbers tell a different story: the jump happened immediately after the Iran strikes, long before any significant Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure.

The $5,000 'Trump Dividend' nobody believes

At the Republican Party convention in Dallas on September 9, Trump promised every adult American a $5,000 "Trump Dividend" if Republicans keep control of Congress. It sounds good. But an NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll found 71% of Americans don’t believe he will deliver — 42% said "definitely not," 29% "probably not."

Even some Republicans are skeptical. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis warned the dividends could increase debt and inflation. Senator Susan Collins said spending decisions "should not be tied to election outcomes." Democrats called the proposal a "political bribe" and "corrupt and frankly illegal."

Vance on Ukraine: "a partner in a certain sense"

On October 20, Vice President J.D. Vance made a revealing statement. He called Ukraine "a partner in a certain sense" and urged Kyiv to stop striking Russian oil refineries. The phrase "in a certain sense" is diplomatic shorthand for "you’re not that important to us."

This is a crucial context for understanding what might change after the election.

Scenarios for Ukraine: hope vs reality

Democrats in Congress have promised to accelerate military aid to Ukraine if they win. That sounds like good news. But analysts at European Pravda urge caution.

First, Trump remains the chief foreign policy actor. Even if Democrats take both chambers, he can veto aid bills — overriding a veto requires a two-thirds majority, which is unlikely.

Second, the new Congress won’t be seated until January 2027. Until then, Trump has almost unchecked control over the executive branch.

Third, Democrats are not unanimous. A progressive wing wants to cut military spending overall, and Ukraine could become a bargaining chip in internal negotiations.

Analysts describe the current dynamic as a "red retreat" rather than a "blue wave." Voters are voting against Trump, not for Democrats. That means the Democratic mandate would be weak, limiting their ability to push unpopular measures.

What’s next?

Election Day is November 3. Republicans currently hold a 218–214 majority in the House (plus one independent who caucuses with them) and a 53–47 majority in the Senate. Losing just a few seats could flip control.

If Democrats win at least one chamber, they can block Trump’s initiatives, hold hearings, and launch investigations. But a fundamental shift in Ukraine policy is unlikely — at best, they could accelerate already-approved aid packages.

For Kyiv, the worst-case scenario is not a Democratic victory, but keeping the current Republican majority that is fully loyal to Trump. In that case, aid cuts become almost inevitable.

But even under Democrats, expect slow, cautious support — not a breakthrough. American politics is a game of interests, not emotions.