AfD wins Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania as Die Linke tops Berlin vote

AfD finished first in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania without a majority

AfD won 38.2% of the second vote in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. The party received 16.7% in 2021, meaning its share increased by about 21.5 percentage points. The SPD of state premier Manuela Schwesig came second with 35.5%, down from 39.6% five years ago.

The CDU received 4.9%, below the 5% threshold for representation. It had won 13.3% in 2021. Tagesschau and AP reported that this is the first time in the history of the modern Federal Republic that the CDU has failed to enter a German state legislature.

Die Linke enters the parliament with 6.5% and the Greens with 5.7%. BSW, at 4.8%, and the FDP, at 1.0%, remain outside. The preliminary official seat allocation gives AfD 32 seats, the SPD 29, Die Linke five and the Greens five in the 71-seat legislature.

AfD therefore has the largest parliamentary group but not an outright majority. The SPD, Die Linke and the Greens have 39 seats between them, above the 36 required for a majority. The other parties have publicly ruled out governing with AfD, leaving an SPD-Linke-Greens arrangement as a mathematically viable majority without AfD. No coalition agreement has yet been reached.

Die Linke more than doubled its Berlin vote

In Berlin, Die Linke finished first in a House of Representatives election for the first time. Its preliminary official second-vote share was 25.7%, up from 12.2% in 2023. The CDU fell from 28.2% to 18.8%.

AfD came third on 16.3%, up from 9.1%. The Greens received 14.3% and the SPD 12.1%, the Social Democrats' lowest result in a Berlin state election. BSW received 4.7% and the FDP 2.5%, leaving both below the 5% threshold.

Turnout was 74.2% in Berlin, compared with 62.9% in 2023. Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania recorded turnout of 78.1%.

Berlin's incumbent CDU-SPD coalition no longer has a parliamentary majority. Tagesschau identifies two politically discussed combinations with the numbers for a majority: Die Linke with the Greens and SPD, or a CDU-led coalition with the Greens and SPD. Which, if either, emerges will depend on negotiations; finishing first does not automatically determine who leads the city-state government.

Russia, energy and Ukraine were part of the Mecklenburg debate

The Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania campaign also carries a direct foreign-policy dimension for Ukrainian readers. The Nord Stream pipeline terminates in the state, and Reuters reports that AfD campaigned for Russian gas flows through the pipeline to resume, arguing that this would lower energy costs.

After the election, Schwesig said opposition to aid for Ukraine and support for Nord Stream were among the factors she believed had shifted voters toward AfD. That is Schwesig's interpretation of voter behaviour, not an established motive applying to every AfD voter. Infratest dimap's voter-transition figures are also statistical estimates rather than direct evidence of each voter's reasons.

State results do not automatically change Germany's federal government

The elections have a federal political dimension because the CDU is led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Merz himself described his party's Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania performance as a “disaster” but said he intended to remain chancellor and continue his government's reform agenda.

The two state votes do not by themselves alter the composition of the Bundestag or remove the federal government. Their immediate consequence is a new balance of seats in the two state legislatures and negotiations over governments in Berlin and Schwerin.