Data-center strikes bring the war deeper into daily life, but polls show no clear opinion reversal

The video used as the starting point for this report presents the latest developments as the possible beginning of a “fourth phase” in how Ukrainian society experiences the war.

The reasoning is clear. Strikes are increasingly affecting infrastructure in the capital that supports communications, businesses, television and ordinary digital services.

But two separate questions need to be distinguished: what the strikes have demonstrably done to civilian infrastructure, and whether those consequences have already produced a measurable political shift in public opinion.

There is strong evidence for the first. Evidence for the second is not yet available.

Around 100,000 households experienced internet disruption

Following the September 23 attack, Ukraine's Digital Transformation Ministry said roughly 100,000 households in Kyiv and the surrounding region were experiencing internet problems. Equipment belonging to several providers at data-center facilities was damaged, prompting emergency repair work.

On September 26, Cosmonova said its DC|COSMONOVA facility in Kyiv had suffered damage so extensive that the data center would no longer operate. The company said work was continuing to move and restore some services.

The effects extended beyond residential internet access. By September 27, disruptions had been reported to television broadcasting and services including MEGOGO and SWEET.TV.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the same morning that Russian forces had struck a Kyiv data center twice and that three people, including two children, were injured in the first strike.

Why damage to one facility can affect many unrelated services

A data center is not necessarily a server room serving a single company.

One facility can host networking equipment belonging to internet providers, hosting companies, broadcasters and digital platforms. Physical damage to a shared site can therefore create cascading failures across businesses that otherwise have no direct relationship with each other.

That concentration helps explain how a strike on one location can appear to consumers as home-internet outages, unavailable websites and television problems across multiple networks.

The proposed “fourth phase” has not yet been demonstrated by polling

The source material argues that the intensifying strikes could mark another turning point in Ukrainians' attitudes toward the war, following the shock of the 2022 invasion, expectations of a relatively quick victory and the later fatigue of a prolonged conflict.

That is an analytical interpretation rather than the finding of a new opinion poll.

The latest available survey from the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology was conducted between August 21 and September 10 — before the latest sequence of strikes on Kyiv's data centers.

In that poll, 77% said Ukraine should continue armed resistance even if Russian attacks left people temporarily without electricity, heating or sewage services. Twelve percent selected the alternative of accepting any Russian demands to stop such disruption, while 11% were undecided.

In Kyiv itself, 83% selected continued resistance under that scenario.

A separate KIIS survey conducted from July 20 to August 3 found that 61% nationwide said they were prepared to endure the war for “as long as necessary.” In Kyiv, that figure was 69%, compared with 61% in April.

Those figures should not be interpreted as showing that 77% or 61% oppose negotiations of any kind. The questions measured willingness to resist and, in one case, willingness to accept any Russian demands.

They therefore support neither a claim that Ukrainians reject negotiations altogether nor a claim that society has already shifted toward peace at any price.

Russia and Ukraine give different accounts of the targets

Russia's Defense Ministry has said some of the data centers and telecommunications facilities it targeted were being used in support of Ukraine's armed forces and security agencies.

Ukrainian officials describe the infrastructure as critical to civilians and point out that connectivity is also needed for rapid missile and drone alerts.

There is not enough publicly available independent evidence to establish the military role, if any, of every individual data center that has been struck.

What the evidence currently supports

The escalation against digital infrastructure is already producing measurable civilian consequences. Tens of thousands of users have experienced outages, individual data centers have been badly damaged or shut down, and the effects have spread to broadcasting and online services.

What has not yet been demonstrated is that the September attacks have pushed Ukrainian public opinion into a fundamentally new stage.

Establishing that would require polling conducted after the September 23–27 strikes.

Until such data exist, the idea of a “fourth phase” should be treated as a hypothesis rather than an established fact.