Brent briefly tops $108 as Saudi pipeline outage adds pressure to Ukraine's fuel market

Brent crude reached an intraday high of $108.65 a barrel on September 14. At one Reuters update it traded at $107.61, up 2.9% on the day, after gaining about 9% during the previous week. Volatility continued on September 15, when Reuters reported an earlier high of $108.43 before prices eased. That matters because the Ukrainian story should not be built around one rapidly changing oil quote. The real issue is why crude has returned to these levels and how long the disruption lasts.

Saudi Arabia temporarily shut its East-West pipeline after a drone attack. The roughly 1,200-kilometre system links the kingdom's eastern oil-producing region with Yanbu on the Red Sea, offering an alternative to exports through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Aramco has put the system's crude capacity at around 7 million barrels per day, with roughly 5 million barrels per day of export capacity available through Yanbu.

Reuters reported, citing Saudi oil buyers and traders, that failure to restart the route within days could put as much as 4% of global oil supply at risk. Sources told the agency that export-ready inventories at Yanbu could cover roughly five to seven days. A definitive official repair timetable was not available at the time of this review.

For Ukraine, the transmission mechanism is relatively direct because the country imports large volumes of refined fuel.

Ukraine imported 588,000 tonnes of diesel in August and 4.2 million tonnes in the first eight months of 2026. Gasoline imports reached 152,000 tonnes in August and 1.12 million tonnes in January-August. European refined-product prices therefore matter at least as much as the headline Brent quote for what Ukrainian distributors eventually pay.

That pressure is already visible at the pump.

According to the A-95 Consulting Group, the average retail price of A-95 gasoline rose UAH 2.79 per litre between September 7 and 14 to UAH 85.01. Diesel increased UAH 3.42 to UAH 95.94 per litre. Some fuel chains were already charging UAH 99.90 for standard diesel, while premium diesel had crossed UAH 100 per litre.

Diesel is the more immediate concern.

Wholesale prices were around UAH 93.50 per litre or higher on September 14. A-95 calculated a negative UAH 0.86-per-litre spread between wholesale and average retail prices. In practical terms, that suggests part of the latest increase in replacement cost had not yet been fully passed on to motorists.

Using the average 2025 wholesale-to-retail spread as a benchmark, A-95 estimated that current wholesale conditions would imply a potential diesel retail level of UAH 102 per litre or more.

That figure should not be read as a guaranteed national price forecast. It is a market calculation showing what retail economics could look like if wholesale costs remain elevated and margins normalise.

The exchange rate is not currently the main culprit.

Ukraine's official exchange rate on September 15 was UAH 44.618 per US dollar and UAH 51.5231 per euro. The dollar moved by only about 0.16% on the day and had remained close to UAH 44.5-44.6 over the preceding days. Compared with the much larger swings in oil and European refined-product prices, currency movement has so far been a secondary factor in this particular surge.

Nor is September's increase the result of a newly introduced fuel tax.

Ukraine's 2026 excise rates — already in force since January 1 — are €300.8 per 1,000 litres for gasoline, €253.8 for diesel and €198 for LPG. The taxes form a substantial part of pump prices, but they did not suddenly change when Brent jumped in September.

The next move at Ukrainian filling stations will therefore depend on several variables: how quickly the Saudi pipeline returns to service, whether shipping conditions around Hormuz and the Red Sea improve, European gasoline and gasoil prices, inventories and logistics, the hryvnia exchange rate, and how much margin fuel retailers are willing to sacrifice before adjusting their signs again.

There is no responsible formula saying that a $5 rise in Brent automatically means a specific number of hryvnias added to every litre sold in Ukraine.

But the diesel market is already sending a clear warning.

The global shock has reached Ukrainian wholesale prices. Retail prices are still catching up. That makes the duration of the Saudi outage — rather than today's exact Brent quote — the number worth watching next.